Probability Getting an invite for 190 NSW with AI - this what came out for a Civil Engineer -hopeful for an invite assuming he has all the optimum qualities NSW is looking for with a limited slots of invites sent to CEs at 10% of total (assumed) , assumed at 80 slots at 800 total invites , lets say they issue invites at one go.There are 90000 applicants (overall) EOIs in NSW pool ,with estimated CEs with assumed 500 people qualified with max experience ,high points and Superior English
Certainly! Let’s calculate the probability for a Civil Engineer to receive an invitation for the Skilled Nominated Visa (Subclass 190) in New South Wales (NSW).
Given:
Total number of applicants in NSW: 90,000
Invites sent for Civil Engineers: 80 (10% of total slots)
Qualified applicants with high points, max experience, and superior English for Civil Engineers: 500
Probability of an invite for Civil Engineers (X1):
The chance of an invite being sent to a Civil Engineer is 10%.
We’ll assume that the 80 slots are filled by Civil Engineers.
Therefore, the probability of a Civil Engineer being invited is: [ \text{Probability of Civil Engineer invite} = \frac{X1}{90,000} = \frac{0.10 \times 80}{90,000} ]
Probability of meeting criteria (X2):
We’ll assume that all 500 applicants with high points, max experience, and superior English are eligible for the subclass 190.
Therefore, the probability of an applicant meeting these criteria is: [ \text{Probability of meeting criteria} = \frac{X2}{90,000} = \frac{500}{90,000} ]
Overall probability for a Civil Engineer to get an invite:
Since the 80 slots are already allocated to Civil Engineers, we’ll consider the remaining applicants.
The overall probability is the product of the probabilities calculated above: [ \text{Overall Probability} = \text{Probability of Civil Engineer invite} \times \text{Probability of meeting criteria} ]
Now let’s calculate the values:
[ \text{Probability of Civil Engineer invite} = \frac{0.10 \times 80}{90,000} = 0.0000889 ] [ \text{Probability of meeting criteria} = \frac{500}{90,000} = 0.00556 ]
[ \text{Overall Probability} = 0.0000889 \times 0.00556 = 0.000000494 ]
Therefore, the overall probability for a Civil Engineer to receive an invitation in a round is approximately 0.0000494%. 🙁 Keep in mind that this is an estimation based on the given assumptions, and actual numbers may vary.
Consider how lucky you are if you get invited in the next round!
So please don't waste a pre-invite you received - as it may never come again.
